Monitoring and modelling of urban expansion: a case study considering three urban agglomerations of India
Student name: Ms Tanushree Mukherjee
Guide: Dr Chander Kumar Singh
Year of completion: 2013
Host Organisation: Indira Gandhi Conservation Monitoring Centre, WWF-India, New Delhi
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Dr G. Areendran
Abstract: In Indian scenario, the urban agglomerations have immense urban sprawl with massive congestion due to
stretching beyond capacity to provide basic living amenities and necessary systems. This includes poor public
transportation, noticeable lack of proper sanitation, extreme socio-economic disparities and crime issues. Thus
these urban agglomerations are highly vulnerable to natural and man-made risks. In this study, three urban
agglomerations are taken into consideration, which lies in natural vulnerable zone and comes with a noticeable
population growth. These Urban Agglomerations are- Pune, Ranchi and Dehradun. The main aim of this study is
to map the urban growth and urban footprint of these Urban Agglomerations (i.e. Pune, Ranchi and Dehradun)
using urban landscape analysis and calculation of sprawl. The sprawls of three UAs mostly have increased in
Southern Direction in between 1990-2009. Urbanness is the state of being urban. In this study the urbanness has
increased 12.9% (1990-2000) and 25% (1990-2009) in Pune UA; 8.7% (1990-2000) and 20.4% (1990-2009) in
Dehradun UA; 16% (1990-2000) and 31.4% (1990-2009) in Ranchi UA. Spatial densities seem to increase over
time (1990-2000) as the result of infill of the urban footprint. In this study, to predict the trend and future
perception Markov Chain Analysis have done. There is distinct difference between the Classified Images for
three years (1990, 2000, and 2009). These differences have calculated by Change Matrix. From these prediction
maps, the patterns of urban growth for these three UAs have been documented. For Three UAs Pune, Ranchi &
Dehradun, probably built-up area will increase. That tends to increase population density over time. Using these
tools and indices the urban expansion and growth can be modelled. Also it will help in policy making to give
better facilities to the dwellers.
Keywords: Urban Agglomerations, Urban Landscape Analysis, Markov Chain Analysis, Urban Sprawl, Change
Matrix, Urbanness
