Mapping impacts of climate change across major seasons using fuzzy cognitive mapping
Student name: Ms Shailly Jaiswal
Guide: Dr Chubamenla Jamir
Year of completion: 2013
Host Organisation: Institute of Rural Management Anand (IRMA)
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Dr P. K. Singh
Abstract: Impacts of climate change are felt and observed by the agro-pastoralist society on their livelihoods.
Agriculture, a climate sensitive sector, being the major source of livelihood of rural people
increases their vulnerability towards climate change. Understanding the concept of different assets
of livelihood and their linkages helps us comprehend the extent of exposure which the rural
community faces. Variability in the present climate system makes it difficult and perilous for human
development. Impacts can be felt differently at different geographical regions. Countries like India
with an added higher demographic pressure, low on technology for disaster warning systems and
several other factors are more vulnerable. To study sustainable livelihood, framework of
Department of International Development, Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA) has been used.
Fuzzy cognitive mapping is combined with sustainable livelihood approach to understand the
impacts on various assets classes of livelihood for Shajapur district of Madhya Pradesh in central
India. One hundred and sixty five people in forty two groups from five villages were surveyed for
this study. Natural assets of agro-pastoralists residing in this region have been influenced greatly by
the uncertainties in the major three seasons i.e. summer, winter and rainfall. Rural community
perceives the increase in summer and winter temperature and the decrease in average annual
rainfall and its impacts on several facets of life. Considering these perception based values, relative
impacts of climate change in the near future have been estimated for different asset classes. In view
of agro-ecological zone of Shajapur, adaptation strategies focusing adaptation options have been
recommended.
Keywords: climate change, agro-pastoralist, asset classes of livelihood, fuzzy cognitive mapping,
adaptation strategy
