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Modeling probable distribution of selected terrestrial invasive plant species in Western Ghats using GARP

Student name: Ms Bhawna Sharma
Guide: Dr Neeraj Khera
Year of completion: 2005
Host Organisation: Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and Environment (ATREE), Bangalore
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Dr Mohammed Irfan Ullah
Abstract:

Exotic species are often introduced into newer geographic regions for obvious economic benefits to the mankind. Reports from various places indicate that a few actually start invading the non-native ranges affecting biodiversity and ecosystem balance, thereby causing unanticipated costs. These costs are more if the invasion occurs in the areas that are rich in endemic species and are highly prone to degradation i.e. biodiversity ‘hotspots’, Western Ghats in South India is one of those. It is important to be critical of selecting the species for introduction into these areas, so that the damage to the biodiversity is prevented. For this if these areas where the species could possibly spread can be predicted, the cost can be anticipated and actions can be taken accordingly. The availability of reasonably similar ecological niche between the native and non-native ranges is the first and foremost prerequisite for successful colonization of the exotics in any region. Predictive Niche Modeling comes handy, as a promising proactive approach in predicting ecological niches of the potential exotic species that has demonstrated invasive aptitude elsewhere. Thus, the present study was done for ecological niche modeling for Lantana camara, Mikania micrantha, Chromolaena odorata, Parthenium hysterophorus and Prosopis juliflora in Western Ghats is being done. The prediction maps obtained from the study showed ROC values much more than 0.5 and thus, are far better than random models. Chromolaena odorata was found to be the highest threat in Western Ghats as 94% of the its total area was predicted, followed by Lantana camara (90%), Mikania micrantha (87%), Parthenium hysterophorus (80%) and Prosopis juliflora (33.8%). 64.9 % of the total area of Maharashtra state under Western Ghats was found to be under the potential threat by all the five species under study. Cauvery, Bannerghatta, BRT, Indira Gandhi, KMTR, Madumalai, Kudremukh, Anshi, Silent Valley, Idukki, Wayanad, Periyar, Parambikulam and Dandeli were found to be the critical areas for monitoring the invasive species. Results of this study can help in prioritizing areas for control of invasive species, by considering the probability of potential spread and the number of endemic species present in that area, as well as the protected status of the area to reduce the expense of control.