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The present study aims to investigate the economic impacts of weather variability on apple and saffron cultivation in the Kashmir Valley, India, a region where horticulture supports nearly seven lakh families and contributes significantly to its economy. The objectives are to quantify the effects of temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity on apple and saffron yields and to assess district-wise vulnerabilities to climate change using the district-wise marginal effects. Employing the Ricardian approach, the analysis uses panel data from 2001 to 2022, covering six districts for apples (Anantnag, Baramulla, Budgam, Kupwara, Pulwama, Srinagar) and three for saffron (Budgam, Pulwama, Srinagar). Data on yields were sourced from the Department of Horticulture and Directorate of Agriculture, Jammu and Kashmir, while climatic data were obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department. Quadratic least squares dummy variable regressions reveal significant non-linear impacts of climatic variables. For apples, a 1°C rise in summer temperature reduces yields by 6.10%, and a 1% increase in autumn relative humidity decreases yields by 1.97%, with Baramulla showing the highest vulnerability (19.16% yield reduction per 1°C increase). For saffron, a 1°C increase in August-September temperature reduces yields by 64.69%, and excessive June-July relative humidity decreases yields by 18.19%. District-wise analysis highlights uniform vulnerabilities for saffron due to shared climatic data, underscoring the need for enhanced meteorological infrastructure. These findings emphasize the crops’ sensitivity to heat and moisture stress, driven by a warming trend and declining humidity. Policy recommendations include breeding climate-resilient varieties, implementing district-specific interventions like greenhouse technologies in Baramulla, and scaling up integrated pest management and efficient irrigation systems. This study contributes to the discourse on climate adaptation by advocating for targeted strategies to ensure the sustainability of Kashmir’s horticultural sector amidst escalating climate variability.
