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Migration patterns and demographic dividend- a quantitative analysis of economic and environmental interactions

Student name: Ms Stuti Agarwal
Guide: Dr Priyanka Arora
Year of completion: 2025

Abstract:

The study investigates the impact of international migration on the demographic dividend of an economy and also its impact on the environmental degradation, and ultimately capturing their linkage to the economic growth of nation. Demographic dividend, being an age structure concept, is influenced by the change in demographic transitions which sometimes occur because of inward and outward migration. It also tries to find out how the economic growth can be sustained even after the closing of demographic dividend window and suggests policy implications for the same. It employs the cross-country analysis by taking panel data of 193 countries, from time period 1976 to 2023. The theoretical concepts like Demographic transition theory, Age structure dynamics and migration theory, used to explain the economic grounding of the trend taking place globally. It employs the IV-2SLS regression model. The model is specified into two parts, one by taking relation of economic growth to migration and working age population and the other for capturing the effect of migration and environment on economic growth. Further, the countries taken are divided into quartiles depending upon the share of working age population present out of the total population. This provides detailed analysis to understand the role of demographic dividend, which needs to be harnessed efficiently in order to achieve its full benefit and contributing in growth trajectory of economies. The approach towards smarter migration management, strong job market capacity, a forward-looking urban sustainable policy and solid macroeconomic governance, can help in sustaining economic growth even after the closing of demographic dividend window.

Keywords: International Migration, Demographic Dividend, Economic Growth, Environmental Sustainability, Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG), Panel Data Analysis, Endogeneity, Instrumental Variable (IV) Estimation, Development Economics.