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Food security and the demographic dividend are two of India’s most significant developmental concerns. As a country where food comprises a large share of household expenditure and a major portion of the population is in the working-age group, the capacity of households to ensure basic consumption while leveraging their demographic potential is central to inclusive growth. However, the emergence of natural shocks—such as the COVID-19 pandemic—poses a serious threat to both. Such systemic shocks disrupt livelihoods, strain financial coping mechanisms, and expose the limitations of demographic and institutional resilience.
This thesis explores how Indian households navigated the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on (1) changes in food expenditure patterns amidst income shocks, (2) the use of savings and borrowing to smooth consumption, and (3) the role of household demographic structure—specifically the share of working-age members—in enhancing or limiting financial resilience.
Using nationally representative panel data from the Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) between May 2019 and April 2021, the study employs a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework to identify the impact of the lockdown on key household outcomes. The findings show that while food expenditure was protected in relative terms, this was achieved through depletion of financial buffers such as fixed deposits and gold, and through increased borrowing—especially among informal and low-income households. Nutritional quality and dietary diversity declined, even where nominal spending was sustained.
Contrary to expectations around the demographic dividend, the presence of working-age members did not guarantee resilience. The benefit of demographic advantage was evident only when supported by stable employment and access to financial tools. In households engaged in precarious or informal work, economic vulnerability persisted regardless of age structure.
By connecting food security, financial coping, and demographic resilience under the lens of a large-scale natural shock, this thesis provides a comprehensive understanding of household responses in times of crisis. The findings offer critical insights for policymakers aiming to strengthen social protection, build shock-responsive welfare systems, and make India’s demographic potential truly inclusive and sustainable.
