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Weather shocks, adaptation and impacts on rice producers

Student Name: Mr Prabhakaran T R
Guide: Dr Sukanya Das
Year of completion: 2023

Abstract:

Climate change and its variations adversely affect crop productivity resulting in severe economic losses for marginal communities primarily dependent on agriculture. The incidences of climate variations and stresses have increased and are projected to escalate in the future. Hence, there is an urgent need to address the adverse impact of climate variations and stresses in agriculture. Keeping the above context in mind, the thesis aims to study three important dimensions– (i) the impact of climate variation on rice productivity, (ii) adaptation to drought and floods in the regions, and (iii) the role of information on STRVs adoption, in the selected eastern Indian regions prone to climate stresses. The historical analysis finding reveals that the maximum temperature and severe drought statistically and significantly reduce rice productivity in the Kharif (wet) season. This indicates the significance of adaptation to the climate variations and stresses to protect farmers who largely depend on rice cultivation. The thesis considers the adoption of climate-resilient rice varieties as an adaptation strategy against climate stresses, such as drought and flood. The finding of the adaptation to drought shows that 37.7% of the sampled households in Chhattisgarh adopted a drought-tolerant rice variety (Sahbhagi Dhan) during the years 2013 to 2016. The variety performed well and resulted in good rice yield under two weeks of dry spells in the Kharif season. Consecutive four years of Sahbhagi Dhan adoption reduced rice-fallow households and areas by 26.0% and 27.6%. However, 47.2% of previous adopters discontinued the cultivation of Sahbhagi Dhan in 2016, majorly because of the seed unavailability, no seed left over, and lack of information about the characteristics of the variety. The findings of adaptation to flood reveal that the adoption of flood-tolerant rice variety (Swarna-Sub-1) varied significantly across the study area. The benefit of cultivating Swarna-Sub1 is much higher in submergence conditions than in normal conditions. An additional 19.0% and 48.2% of Kharif rice yield and income are obtained respectively by cultivating Swarna-Sub-1 in flooded conditions. However, nearly one-fifth of the Swarna Sub-1 adopters discontinued the adoption during the years 2012 to 2015. The major reason for discontinued adoption is reported as the unavailability of seed. The result reveals that access to information on climate-resilient variety significantly influences the Swarna Sub-1 adoption. About, 71.2% of Swarna Sub-1 adopters are having access to the STRVs information compared to the 27.0% of non-adopters. The projected impact of STRV information reaching all villages is estimated to be more than 500 million USD per year in three eastern Indian states. Based on the key findings, the thesis recommends ensuring the access, availability, dissemination, and promotion of climate-resilient varieties to increase the adoption of STRVs to mitigate crop loss in regions prone to drought and flood. Since new technologies are being introduced rapidly and knowledge transfer in agriculture is limited, agricultural extension is likely to become an important source of knowledge and information. Along with access to information, timely and relevant information will help to increase the adoption of STRVs. Hence, a targeted scaling in areas prone to drought and flood will have a significant influence on the food security of small farmers living in those fragile environments.

Keywords: Climate-resilient variety; Eastern India; Impacts; Information; Sahbhagi Dhan; Sequential adoption; Swarna Sub-1.