ANNOUNCEMENTS
With the rise in global temperatures by 1.0˚Ϲ since pre-industrial levels, the impacts of human-induced climate warming are increasingly becoming precarious. This has led to rise in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across the globe. India, being one of the most vulnerable countries to the threats of climate change, has witnessed a warming of 1.2 ˚Ϲ. This rise in temperatures will cause space cooling energy demand for buildings to rise from 169 TWh in 2017 to 970 TWh in 2037. The percentage of space-cooling in peak electricity demand is also projected to increase from 10% at present to 45% in 2050. The deleterious impact of extreme weather events also cannot be ignored in the Indian context.
It is considered the worst affected country in terms of extreme weather events, where 1740 lives were claimed during 2020, and the economic losses were equal to USD 87 billion. Due to its prominent tropical climate, its climate variation is widely seen across its regions and cities, owing to the annual seasonality as well as the varying occurrence of severe weather events. Evidently, there is a limited understanding of the extent of changes in electricity consumption and distribution due to varying climate conditions in Indian states. Hence, to bridge this gap, the present research aims to investigate the direct and indirect effects of climate variability and change on electricity consumption at both macro- and micro-levels in the Indian context. The indirect climate impacts on electricity consumption are examined through the state-level effect of extreme weather conditions on the types of power distribution infrastructure types, the related costs, and supply operations. This is assessed by developing a climate risk assessment matrix and performing a stakeholder survey for a selected set of power distribution utilities. The matrix classifies the intensity of risks from highest to lowest for the state-wise power distribution infrastructure and its constituents. A stakeholder ranking is carried out for the probability of extreme weather events and their impact on the power distribution infrastructure and its constituents for each climate vulnerable study state. The results indicate that the level of risk faced by the power distribution infrastructure constituents which is the highest for Odisha from cyclones, for Bihar from floods, for Assam from thunderstorms, for West Bengal from cyclones and lightning, and for Uttar Pradesh from heatwaves. Next, the direct effects of climate variability on electricity consumption are examined by calculating the change in average electricity consumption and peak demand across six states falling under three different climate zones over a period of 10 years. Both parametric and non-parametric methods are employed for such analysis. We find that the extent of climate sensitivity of cooling electricity consumption varies not only across states belonging to different climate zones but also within the same climate zones. For instance, two composite climate zone states, i.e., Punjab (8.2%) and Uttar Pradesh (1.2%), showed a completely different level of sensitivity to changes in temperature beyond a threshold limit. This can be attributed to the state-wise differences in residential electricity consumption, the percentage of electricity used for space-cooling, and the electricity-use efficiency. It is also observed that relative humidity has a non- linear effect on electricity consumed in the majority of states. Peak demand is more sensitive to the rise in minimum rather than maximum temperatures for Punjab (11%), Tamil Nadu (3.3%), and Madhya Pradesh (2.3%) due to peak demand witnessed during evening in these states. The final part of the thesis evaluates the explanatory factors behind residential sector electricity consumption, known to be particularly responsive to changes in climate, for selected Indian cities using OLS and quantile regression methods. For this purpose, primary household survey data from 1500 households gathered through a multi-stage cluster sampling technique for the peak summer season (April–June) is used to capture the relationship between electricity consumption in households and their demographic, socio-economic, behavioral usage, and climate dimensions. The findings emphasize that behavioral usage factors like the hourly usage of air-conditioners (18:00–24:00) and fans (13:00–18:00) are the most critical when it comes to investigating the electricity consumption within an Indian household. Our research implies that since the change in daily electricity demand requirements is conditional on the climate variations at both the state and sectoral levels, both top-down and bottom-up interventions are needed to cater to such anomalous situations, given that the existing climate change implications hold true.
