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Announcement
Announcement
Stories of developed and developing countries weathering the storms of dynamic oil and coal prices: a comparative study

Student name: Ms Anoushka Vijay Pathak
Guide: Dr Priyanka Arora
Year of completion: 2024
Host Organisation: Indian Institute of Foreign Trade
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Dr Divya Tuteja
Abstract:

This research endeavor aims to explore the ever-evolving relationship between dynamic resource pricing and macroeconomic volatility, with a specific focus on oil and coal in highly natural resource-dependent countries. Spanning over a period of the last 23 years, the dissertation employs various prospective quantitative techniques such as the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) modeling and Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) modeling. The research deftly seeks to analyze the impact of fluctuations in global oil and coal prices on macroeconomic indicators across countries to assess the extent of their volatility as a consequence of resource price dynamism. Furthermore, a series of qualitative techniques such as Efficacy Evaluation using a Descriptive Analysis will be employed to evaluate the effectiveness of the various price stabilization mechanisms like strategic reserves and hedging strategies. While the overarching objective of the study is to develop a comprehensive understanding of the intricacies of the relationship between dynamic resource pricing and macroeconomic volatility and propose strategies to mitigate the threats it poses to highly resource-dependent economies, the study is also focused on the response of the Indian economy, a significant consumer of both these resources, to these price fluctuations. Consequently, the study involves an extensive literature review and descriptive analysis to assess the probable effectiveness of the price stabilization mechanisms being used across the globe, in an Indian context.