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Announcement
Catastrophic infrastructure risk modelling of United Kingdom railways

Student name: Ms Kanika Bhatia
Guide: Dr Chander Kumar Singh
Year of completion: 2023
Host Organisation: Moody's RMS
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Mr Surender Kumar Kushwaha
Abstract:

The importance of effective risk management in today's business environment, particularly in dealing with catastrophic events, is discussed in this Research. It emphasizes the importance of proactively identifying and managing disaster risks in order to reduce their impact on people, communities, and organizations. The ability to anticipate and address potential hazards through data analysis, trend monitoring, and stakeholder engagement are among the benefits of effective risk management. This research article focuses on addressing the research objectives by calculating the potential effects of catastrophic events on a specific system using statistical methods and software tools. For statistical analysis and interpretation, the methodology employs SQL, Microsoft Excel, and RMS proprietary software. In QGIS software, the Equi-distance segmentation method is also used for spatial overlay analysis. OpenStreetMap is used to obtain free and editable geographic data and to validate the same. To estimate losses and identify risks and vulnerabilities, the study focuses on earthquakes, floods, and windstorms as perils. Infrastructure assets, among other things, are mapped using QGIS, ArcGIS, and Google Earth Engine. The study also highlights the significance of accurate exposure data management via an exposure data module. EDM coding ensures the accuracy, adaptability, and integration of various data sources, resulting in standardized and consistent loss projections. Geocoding is critical in disaster modelling because it allows for precise location-based analyses and physical risk assessment.

The research employs RMS software tools, such as Risk Link and Risk Modeler, to estimate the potential damage and restoration costs of linear infrastructure assets. Software programme allow insurance and reinsurance companies to make informed decisions by analyzing, modelling, and estimating the effects of catastrophe risk on their portfolios. Finally, this study presents a comprehensive methodology for evaluating the effects of catastrophic events on a specific system. It aims to provide insights into potential losses, risks, and vulnerabilities by utilizing statistical methods, spatial analysis techniques, and software tools.

Keywords: Catastrophe, Assets, Risk Management, Spatial Analysis, Exposure Data, Insurance.