Vulnerability assessment of water resources due to climate change on Amu Darya river basin in Afghanistan
Student name: Mr Mohammad Waheed Ibrahimzada
Guide: Dr Devesh Sharma
Year of completion: 2011
Host Organisation: TERI University
Abstract: All the important rivers in Afghanistan originate in the central highlands region or the
northeastern Mountains, and almost the entire supply of the country’s water for irrigation,
drinking and maintenance of wetland ecosystems – are derived from precipitation falling within
the country’s own borders, and the seasonal melting of snow and glaciers in mountainous areas.
The Amu Darya is the biggest river basin in Central Asia sheared by Afghanistan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The total area covered by The Amu Darya basin inside of
Afghanistan covers 90692 km
2
(14 % of the national territory). Amu Darya River which is the
second largest basin in Afghanistan due to area, but alone it drains more than half (57 %) of the
total annual water flow of Afghanistan. The basin in Afghanistan comprises from five subs -
basin (Pan, Kokcha, Ab-i-Rustaq, Khanabad, and Kunduz). It is fed largely by water from
melted snow, thus maximum discharges are observed in summer and minimum ones in January-February.
Assessment of vulnerability of water resources over Amu Darya River Basin due to impact of
climate change is vital to sustainable water resources management in the area. Water stress may
effect the deterioration of water resources in both quantities as well as qualities.
Base on methodology developed by UNEP and Peking University (UNEP and PKU, 2008) the
Vulnerability Index of Amu Darya River Basin, falls in (0.53) value which indicate that the Amu
Darya River Basin is under high stress of water resources. Designed policy to provide technical
support and policy back-up in order to mitigate the stress is highly recommended. A longer term
strategic development plan should be made accordingly with focus on rebuilding up of
management capacity to deal with the main threat. Ecological insecurity contributes most to the
water resources vulnerability.
Accounting the vulnerability Index of the area and climatic variation and its impact on water
resources in the region base on A1B, and A2 Climate Change scenarios and CGCM3 model,
there is general overall increase in the quantity of the available precipitation, PET and ET and
decrease in the surface runoff and water yield under SRES scenarios,. There are definite
climate change impacts that may induce additional stresses on vulnerability of water resources
which shall need various adaptation and mitigation strategies to be taken up. Different policies
and strategies should be taken in account. The most valuable steps could be variety from change
in land use, cropping pattern, to water conservation, flood warning systems management etc.
Key Words: Vulnerability Index, Hydrological model- SWAT, climatic variables, watershed,
runoff, Coupled Global Climate Model (CCGM3) and Scenario (SRES).
