ANNOUNCEMENTS
Climate related risks were identified for Manas National Park, a sub-Himalayan grassland ecosystem and impact of climate change have been analyzed. Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope have been used to analyze the changing trend for precipitation and temperature. Significant increasing trend have been observed in Monsoon rainfall. Also, significant increasing trend has been observed in post-monsoon temperature and winter temperature. Changing rainfall and precipitation pattern might have impact on the grassland ecosystem. Model projections were also observed. To assess the key and emergent risks, stakeholder’s consultation and experts survey were carried out. The stakeholders observed changes both in temperature and precipitation and also mentioned about decrease in grazing area. To analyze the change in the grassland, land cover classification was done. Decrease in the grassland and increase in the woodland have be observed. From the satellite images, for the year 1995 and 2020, change in the area of the river have also been observed. Floods and cloudbursts might cause such change and it might increase the vulnerability of the region. Increase in the rainfall might result in the water level in the river and carry huge amount of siltation and damage the land area. Melting of glaciers in the Himalayas has the possibilities of increase the risk at the foothills. Vulnerability assessment was done and the sensitivity of the grassland ecosystem was found to be more than the adaptive capacity. The extreme climatic events might also increase the dryness in the grassland and prolong the period of grass burning. Climate change might also increase the threat of the native plant species and cause optimal environment for invasive species. According to the expert’s survey, there are possibilities for the grassland dependent species to migrate due to impact of climate change. If the mitigation and adaptation strategies are not implemented, then the climate related risk might get severe.
Key words- Climate risk, vulnerability, Manas National Park, Mann-Kendall test and trend.
