Assessing potential distribution of Eupatorium adenophorum in Central Himalayas
Student name: Ms Vallari Sheel
Guide: Dr P K Joshi
Year of completion: 2010
Host Organisation: IGCMC, WWF-India
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Dr G Areendran
Abstract: Invasive alien species can pose a severe threat to biodiversity and stability of the ecosystems they
invade. Predicting potential distributions of invasive species before they have a chance to invade a
region, or spread much further in the region they have invaded, is a crucial component of an early
warning system that must be constituted in order to manage such species. Eupatorium adenophorum
Spreng., a native of Mexico, was first introduced in India as an ornamental plant in the 1920s, from
where it spread far into the subcontinent and today, has become naturalized in many parts of the
country. Using occurrence records of the species in Uttaranchal state of India and 22 environmental
variables, the ecological niche of the species was modeled, using two algorithms – GARP and
Maxent. The models were validated and variables influencing distribution of Eupatorium
adenophorum were identified. Potential distributions were then estimated for the current as well as
the future climatic conditions. It was found that precipitation and minimum temperature are
important factors that limit the distribution of the species. Two future climatic scenarios were
evaluated – A2a (unsustainable growth scenario) and B2a (sustainable development scenario). It was
found that the species would expand its range in both the scenarios, though more in the B2a scenario,
rather than A2a, probably because the species prefers the cooler climate of B2a scenario. Such a
study is significant because it can help to detect potential regions where an invasive species may
spread in the future, and thus help in formulating better management plans to help contain the spread
of such a species.
Keywords: Ecological niche modeling, Eupatorium adenophorum, potential
distribution, Uttaranchal, central Himalayas
