ANNOUNCEMENTS
India declared in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), its goal of decreasing the emission intensity of GDP by 33-35 percent from the 2005 levels, by the time we reach the year 2030. The plans that will be adopted for delivering electricity in the years to come will have an impact on the emissions trajectory for the country. The power sector alone contributes to roughly 50% of total CO2 emissions in India. (Central Electricity Authority 2018). Thus, the focus of this thesis is limited to the Indian electricity sector. The study aims to answer the question “What is the least cost method of meeting India’s electricity demand in 2030, subject to certain supply side constraints and carbon emission targets?”. The idea is to devise a strategy to meet demand, both in terms of energy and load and at the same time keep the emissions under control. The study is a two-part analysis, where Part 1 deals with estimating electricity demand in 2029-30 in India. Based on past literature, the factors that are known to affect electricity demand and that have been included in the study are, Real GDP, Population, WPI for electricity and Rainfall. In addition, a time trend was also added along with adjustments for T & D losses and demand for electric vehicles. The final estimated figure for electricity demand was 2351.505 BU. Part 2 of the analysis deals with an optimization exercise, where one is trying to minimize the cost of generation from coal, lignite, gas, hydro, nuclear, wind and solar. The cost at the generation level in 2030 was found to be Rs. 4.01 per kWh. In addition, it was also found that while following the proposed generation pattern, the country will be able to meet its target of achieving at least forty percent generation capacity from renewables.
Keywords: Emissions, Electricity Demand, INDC
