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Agriculture land dynamics in SAARC nations: relevant to food security in climate change scenarios

Student Name: Mr Ram Kumar Singh
Guide: Dr Vinay Shankar Prasad Sinha
Year of completion: 2021


The availability of food is the prime necessity for the survival of human. The main source of food are agriculture and forestry available land cover linked food production. The recent year agriculture and forest land cover maps are not available, the research mapped the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) nations land cover using Multinomial Logistics Regression (Mnlogit) using remotely sensed MODIS data for the year 2004 to 2007 and 2016. The study achieved better accuracy than previously available global land cover program. The current land cover used to predict future land cover for the year 2050 using climate, and topographical drivers using Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN) algorithm. Land use change is a dynamic process under the influence of multiple drivers including climate change. The future land cover was predicted under the influence of climate change scenarios. The agriculture land productivity vulnerability is the function of sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the system towards impact of the climate change. The study access agriculture Net Primary Productivity (NPP) for the climate scenario for the year 2050 using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) biophysical process-based model. The grid-based agriculture land net primary productivity change leads to assess the sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability for the climate change scenarios of the SAARC nations. The study further using the derived indicators of availability of food, accessibility to food from the World Bank, utilizations of food from Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and stability (derived and FAO, IMF, World Bank) for the assessment of the food security under the climate change scenarios. The study observed agriculture land are increasing and forest land are decreasing in all the SAARC nations for the year 2050, However, NPP is also decreasing as compared to the base year 2016. The vulnerability is all increasing from low RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 in all the SAARC nations. The food security ranking Bangladesh and followed up by Sri-Lanka are in highest position and last position by Maldives nation.

Keywords: South-Asian, Multinomial Logistic (Mnlogit), Time-series, Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN), Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), Vulnerability, Resilience.