Understanding shifts of vegetation cover types in Western Himalayan Ecoregion in climate change scenarios: a geospatial approach
Student name: Ms Asha Rawat
Guide: Dr P K Joshi
Year of completion: 2010
Host Organisation: TERI University
Abstract: Satellite remote sensing and niche modelling helps in the acquisition of land use/land cover and vegetation information and mapping at different spatial and temporal scales. The objective of the study was to map vegetation cover types from 700-4500 m altitude of Western Himalaya. Second objective of the study was to analyze the shift in vegetation cover due to climate change. For first objective, satellite images of Landsat (1976) and LISS III (2005) were visually analyzed and four sites were randomly selected at different altitudes i.e. 4434 m, 3555 m, 2850 m, and 1100 m to demonstrate the hypothesis of forest cover change in past three decades. At these sites the forest types were observed and through visual interpretation no significant changes were observed in these forest types. Niche modelling was done using GARP (Genetic Algorithm of Rule Set Parameters) on Global Land Cover map, 2000 for the five prominent forest types selected i.e. Temperate Evergreen, Tropical Semi Evergreen, Temperate Conifer, Subtropical Conifer, and Tropical Moist Deciduous forests. Modelling was conducted four times, i.e. current scenario, changed precipitation, changed temperature, and changed temperature and precipitation, for all five forest types. On increasing precipitation a downward shift in the temperate evergreen and tropical semi-evergreen was observed while sub-tropical conifer and tropical moist-deciduous forests showed a slight upward shift and temperate conifer showed no shift. On increasing temperature, an upward shift in temperate evergreen, tropical semi-evergreen, temperate conifer and tropical moist deciduous forests was observed except sub-tropical conifer forests that didn’t show any significant changes. When both the parameters were changed the actual distribution was maintained and slight upward shift was observed in temperate evergreen, tropical semi-evergreen, temperate conifer and tropical moist deciduous forests except sub-tropical conifer. Forests play an important role in environment and economy. They provide numerous goods and services. It is important to understand the likely impacts of the projected climate change on the forest ecosystems so that better management and conservation strategies can be adopted for the biodiversity and the forest dependent community.
