Impact of regulatory changes on wind energy business: a case study of regulation on “forecasting, scheduling and deviation settlement mechanism”

Student name: Ms Shruti Jain
Guide: Dr Jami Hossain
Year of completion: 2017
Host Organisation: ReNew Power Ventures Pvt. Ltd.
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Md. Iftekhar Ansari

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Abstract: There is an increase in generation of power from variable or renewable sources of energy. These sources are uncertain and face fluctuations. Thus, electricity produced is fluctuating and causes grid instability. To reduce this and avoid any grid failures, the solar/wind generators provide load dispatch centres or DISCOMs with schedules of their generation in designated time blocks. The latest regulation on scheduling, forecasting and deviation settlement, focuses on these schedules. The regulation is given by CERC (Central Electricity Regulatory Commission) and implemented by all state’s electricity regulatory commission. The regulation provides guidelines for forecasting and scheduling and methodology for calculation of deviation of actual generated power from the scheduled power. In addition, regulation facilitates penalties to be complied on these deviations and the accounting procedures for the same.

The project undertaken deals with comparison of actual generation with the schedule for different sites and in different combinations. The combinations being of day ahead, intra-day and individual sites with combined sites. This was also accompanied with comparing different de-pooling methods.

After analysing the data, it was realized that the best way to reduce the revenue impact of the regulation is by clubbing some sites and then facilitating their schedule to load dispatch centre or DISCOMs. Also, it was observed that during settlement of the deviation charges, the optimal methodology to reduce the impact would be to carry out de-pooling proportional to the schedule accuracy of each site/substation. In addition, there was a trend observed that in case the generation data is provided to the forecasters on real time basis, the schedules obtained will be of improved accuracy.