Long-term electricity demand scenarios for India: implications of energy efficiency
Student name: Mr Ashutosh Negi
Guide: Dr Atul Kumar
Year of completion: 2017
Host Organisation: Prayas (Energy Group), Pune
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Mr Aditya Chunekar
Abstract: Electricity demand estimation is a crucial element in entire electricity supply chain mechanism. In this thesis,
India’s sectoral electricity demand scenarios with incorporating the impact of new trends which may play a major
role in electricity demand in 2020/30 are discussed. Main trends considered in the analysis include energy
efficiency, electric vehicles, domestic roof-top solar PV and electric cooking devices. Three scenarios viz. BAU,
transition and patriotic are presented to analyse the impact of energy efficiency in sectoral electricity
consumption. Energy efficiency factors taken from India Energy Security scenarios (IESS) are incorporated in
BAU scenario additionally to obtain electricity consumption in transition and patriotic scenarios. The analysis
results imply that energy efficiency will play guiding role in electricity consumption and even if the share of EVs
becomes 40 % of total active vehicle stock plying on Indian roads in 2030; EVs will consume only 6% of total
electricity consumption. There are enormous energy saving opportunities exist in consumer end as shown by the
findings of load research reports, which if utilised properly can abbreviate the need for the extra capacity
addition.
Keywords: Energy Efficiency, Electric Vehicles, Electricity Scenarios, IESS
