Comparative assessment and trend analysis of precipitation and discharge in Himalayan snow fed catchments: a case study of Dras, Gomti and Komang sub-basins
Student name: Mr Nakul Rana
Guide: Dr Shresth Tayal
Year of completion: 2017
Host Organisation: The Energy and Resource Institute (TERI), New Delhi
Abstract: Increasing temperatures and altering precipitation patterns across the Himalayan region
consequential of climate change have an effect on availability of water resource and food security on
the population living in the downstream areas. This thesis report seeks to impartially assess and
quantify the existing evidences (precipitation, discharge and evaporation) and their changing pattern
leading to change in glacier hydrology. A wider understanding would develop about implications of
seasonal trend analysis within the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basins. Predicted escalations in
temperature will vigor amplified reduction of glaciers, leading to initial escalations in melt water
production and consequent declines with reduction in glacier mass. The impacts of such a change
have been predicted to be negligible for the overall discharge of the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins
but escalations in rainfall pattern is definitely something which may lead to increased flows with
greater erraticism. Whereas for the Indus basin, decline in melt water will have important bearings
upon existing runoff; however, amplified uncertainties surrounding the variations in precipitation
and socioeconomic factors may limit any certain judgment of water availability. This study tries to
statistically understand and put forward the need for the scientific indication affecting the glacier
system that must be objectively approached in the coming future, so that a more robust calculation of
transformation can be derived and understood.
KEYWORDS : Glacier Discharge, Climate Change, Hydrology, Seasonal Kendall, Himalaya
