Integrated vulnerability assessment of wheat and paddy crops under earth system climate model scenarios, district level analysis in India
Student name: Ms Vanshika Dhamija
Guide: Dr Kamna Sachdeva
Year of completion: 2016
Host Organisation: Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Dr P. K. Joshi
Abstract: Agriculture Sector in India is vulnerable to the projected global warming and associated climate change. This study aims to assess the vulnerability of paddy and wheat crops in current (1975-2005) and for future Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2021-2050) exposure scenarios using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Earth System Model (ESM2G) data for climate projections. In the present study vulnerability has been assessed as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity using composites of 29 proxy indicators for paddy and 40 indicators for wheat. At every step of vulnerability computation there are plausible alternatives available which influence the final outcomes. Therefore, this study uses three approaches namely, deductive (equal weights), hierarchical (AHP) and inductive (PCA) for giving weights to the indicators. Further, consistency-vulnerability maps were prepared to check the consistency in the results. The results of vulnerability profile of paddy suggest high vulnerability in Punjab and West Bengal. Barddhaman, Pashchim Medinipur, South 24 Parganas, Purba Medinipur, Firozpur districts are highly vulnerable in current scenario. Likewise, Medak, Barddhaman, Pashchim Medinipur, Amritsar, Purba Medinipur, Amritsar, Murshidabad districts show very high vulnerability in future scenarios. Our study shows high consistency between the methods. In current climate change scenario, 84.5% of the districts show greater than 75% consistency in the results and 82.7% and 76.3% of the districts show greater than 75% consistency for future RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. Further in case of wheat, Punjab (Bathinda, Firozpur, Muktsar, Sangrur), Haryana (Bhiwani, Hisar, Jind, Sirsa), Uttar Pradesh (Aligarh, Allahabad, Banda, Unnao) and Rajasthan (Ganganagar, Hunamangarh) are found to be very high vulnerable with 85.1% of the districts having greater than 75% consistency in the results of current scenario and 93.1% and 66% of the districts having greater than 75% consistency in future RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. The findings of this study can further assist policymakers and stakeholder to address the impacts of climate change.
