Modelling of stream flow in Himalayan basin under climate change
Student name: Ms Chanchal
Guide: Dr Nithiyanandam Yogeswaran
Year of completion: 2016
Host Organisation: National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Dr Sanjay Kumar Jain
Abstract: Modelling of stream flow is necessary for agricultural watershed management and its effect
on many aspect of change in climate variability. For Soil and Water Assessment Tool
(SWAT) model was used to simulate stream flows in Bhuntar River basin which is situated
Himachal Pradesh in N-W Himalaya region, India.Daily stream flow was simulated for the
period of 1990-2000, and validated for 2001-2010. As it is difficult to calibrate manually
such a complex model with many parameters, the sensitivity analysis was carried out to find
the sensitive parameter which is used as an input for the model calibration and the
Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI2) algorithm was used for calibration and to quantify
uncertainty. Performance SUFI2 was evaluated to reach the objective of the Bhuntar Basin.
For the calibration period, the values of P-factor and R-factor, R2, NS, bR2 and PBIAS were
found to be 0.27, 0.11, 0.6, 0.6, 0.352 and 3.7 respectively in Bhuntar basin. For validation
data, values are found to be 0.14, 0, 0.57, 0.48, 0.258 and 25.3 respectively at the Bhuntar
outlet. It manifests the efficiency and suitability of the SUFI2 method for the Bhuntar
catchment.
Investigation the potential changes in climatic instability, The scenario of two global
climate models (GCMs) that are used to predict Present and future time. The data contains
series of temperature minimum and maximum, precipitation. The simulation values were
generated and investigated climate change effect for the year 1992 to 2060s. The results of
climate change prediction in present and future scenario were estimated. The simulated
stream flow is continuously increased with the time. In the end of 2040’s to 2060’s the
stream flow will increase which shows the instability in climate. The study shows the
changes in climate condition. Hence, the climate is continuously changing due to instability
in the climate as the glacier and snow are continuously shrinking and melting down in the
downstream and effect the water budget component etc.
Keywords:
Stream flow, Sensitivity analysis, Uncertainty analysis, Calibration,
Validation, Climate change prediction, SWAT, SWATCUP -SUFI-2.
