Projections of India’s GHG emissions
Student name: Ms Ayesha Roy
Guide: Dr Sukanya Das
Year of completion: 2016
Host Organisation: Climate Connect Ltd, New Delhi
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Mr Rohan Nongpiur
Abstract: This work takes into account forecasting analysis on GHG emissions of Indian economy from 2015-2030 in India
and then analyzing the impact of GDP growth under three scenarios over carbon emissions. The study found that
only GDP factor when taken into account does not provide a clear picture of the varying and increasing trend of the
economy wide emissions. Hence the other complimentary factors into play according to the decomposition analysis
in literature are taken into account but not much in detail in the scope of the study. Hence, they are kept in
annexure. Only energy consumption of the whole economy from fossil fuels is taken into play to see its impact on the
carbon emissions but calculating emissions and energy intensities are kept in annexure for they do not hold the
mainstream of the study.
According to the forecast analysis in the three GDP scenarios of the India economy, carbon emissions may continue
to grow but with a decreasing trend in percentage with decreasing GDP growth rate in the short-term future.
As the government progresses with its new energy and environmental policies mentioned in the new INDC being
submitted to the UNFCCC for tackling climate change, India still needs to work vigorously on incorporating
scientific methods for proposing national level emission reduction targets. So that India too can become an
important player as a developing country in the energy markets. This would help India take the complementary
measures to the next level for bringing all the stakeholders to a common platform which till now remains a
challenging goal for the government to achieve.
Key words: Indian GHG emissions, GDP scenarios, energy consumption, INDC, energy policies.
