A time series modeling approach for understanding urbanization and groundwater management challenges in a macro-watershed: a case study of Musi Basin, Telangana
Student name: Ms Sana Anjum
Guide: Dr Prateek Sharma
Year of completion: 2015
Host Organisation: saciWATERs, Secunderabad, Telangana
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Dr Poulomi Banerjee
Abstract: In the past two to three decades usage of groundwater has grown luxuriantly in the
absence of imperative managerial control. Advancement of technology has been
progressively persistent ever since industrialization. However, this ‘advancement’
has remained highly debatable in the context of ensuring the health of environment.
The condition of groundwater is no different from any other natural resources,
where it suffers a similar fate of ‘exploitation’.
Easy accessibility of groundwater has led to its vulnerability in terms of
exploitation. This nature, of groundwater, has also made, agriculture its biggest
consumer. However, the scenario is drastically changing in the urban and periurban
landscapes where intermittency in water supply and lack of water supply
structure, respectively, has led to a shift towards groundwater usage, to keep up to
the growing water demands.
The semi-arid and arid regions across the world suffer notably, since, primary
dependence of populace on groundwater. Telangana, in India is one such state that
suffers from the dilemma of urbanization and rapidly declining water table.
Emergence of highly competitive informal water markets during the peak summer
months adds to existing pressure.
In this way, it becomes necessary to map the potential groundwater fluctuation in an
aquifer. There are several models that can simulate and forecast fluctuations based
on the inertia from the past. Time Series is highly recognized in the areas where
hydro-geological parameters are unavailable for deterministic modeling. This thesis
uses ARIMA for time series analysis to identify models that can be useful for
forecasting groundwater levels in Musi Basin. It also is directed towards identifying
the policy gaps that can further aggravate the problem, in the basin, if allowed to
continue unchecked.
Keywords: Groundwater, Urbanization, Peri-Urban, ARIMA, Musi Basin, Water
Markets
