ANNOUNCEMENTS
This study adopts an integrated ‘source’-to-‘receptor’ assessment paradigm in order to determine the effect of emissions from passenger transport on urban air quality and human health in the megacity of Delhi. The year 2007 was considered as the baseline year for predicting the impacts of vehicular emission for the year 2021, using scenario analysis. For this purpose, three alternative scenarios (ALT) for the passenger vehicles and two alternative scenarios for the goods vehicles have been analysed. The scenario generation takes into account the travel demand, policy implication and vehicle characteristics (such as vehicle Activity, vehicle model Structure and emission Factors etc.) captured from primary vehicle user surveys in the study region. An Activity-Structure-Emission Factor (ASF) framework is used for modelling emissions under the proposed scenarios. For passenger vehicles, the intervention that has a mix of source emission norms, incentive for modal shift, new engine technology, speed regulation and hiked parking fee for private vehicles, provided the best estimate for the air emissions. The reduction in emission levels under this scenario is primarily attributed to the decrease in overall vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) from ~84% to 26% with respect to the 2007-BASE year. This decrease in VKT indicates a major shift of private vehicle users to the public transport alternatives – the Delhi Metro and the bus rapid transit in the future. Further, the per capita emissions in Delhi show a major reduction in the range of ~39-76% under various alternative scenarios compared to the 2007-BASE year. For the goods vehicles, the alternative scenario that has stringent sources emission norms (Bharat-V ~ Euro-V) and introduction of diesel particulate filter for heavy duty vehicles resulted in maximum reduction in the emission levels.
Further, the quanitfied emission load from the ASF emission framework was further used to estimate the grid-wise air quality using AERMOD and health impact using an epidemiological approach. It was observed that 2021-ALT-III scenario resulted in maximum reduction of ~24%, ~42% and ~50% for carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM) concentrations, respectively, compared to 2021-BAU scenario. Further it results in significant reductions in respiratory and cardiovascular mortality, morbidity and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) by 58% and 42% on exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations compared to 2021-BAU scenario, respectively. In other words, a mix of proposed policy interventions namely full-phased introduction of Integrate Mass Transit System, fixed bus speed, stringent vehicle emission norms and hike in parking fees for private vehicles would help in strengthening passenger transport’s capability in order to cater to growing passenger travel demand with minimum health burden in Delhi region. Further, the study estimated that goods transport would be responsible for ~5.5% additional VKT in 2021-BAU scenario; however, it contributes ~49% and ~47% additional NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations, respectively, in the study region. Implementation of diesel particulate filter for goods vehicles in 2021-ALT-IV-O scenario would help in reduction of ~87% of PM2.5 concentration, compared to 2021-BAU scenario; translating into the gain of 51 and 127 DALY per 100,000 people from exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations, respectively. These findings suggest that significant health benefits are possible if goods transport is also included while designing strategies and polices in order to improve the overall urban air quality and minimize health impacts in city areas
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