Demand and supply analysis of India renewable energy certificates
Student name: Mr Rahul Rana
Guide: Dr Arabinda Mishra
Year of completion: 2014
Host Organisation: TERI University
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Mr Nitin Tanwar
Abstract: This report analyses the supply and demand characteristics found in the Indian REC
market. An attempt was also made to build a forecast model using Multiplicative
Decomposition Time Series Model.
Various statistical tools like annual growth rates regression and correlation was
used to analyze the market. A decomposition model was made by analyzing
seasonality and trend, the data was then de seasonlized to make forecast, using a
moving average of 12.
Wind energy was found be the dominant source in the REC mechanism of India
accounting for over 50% of overall accredited capacity. However, the RECs issued
were dominated by wind as well as biomass and bio cogeneration sources
accounting cumulatively for 90% of all RECs issued. 70% correlation was between
accredited capacity and REC issued for wind and solar. Other sources showed
milder correlation of around 50%. Seasonal factors are dominant in the REC
supply, which mainly peaks from July to September. The model built showed a 30%
difference MAPE taken annually, however most of the difference was accounted by
the first year, in the following years the annual MAPE decreased to 19% and 18%
Keywords: REC, renewable energy, forecasting
