Climate change and human health: An analysis of association between climatic variables and disease incidence (All-cause diarrhoea & malaria) in north 24 Parganas, West Bengal, India
Student name: Ms Sneha Balakrishnan
Guide: Dr Prateek Sharma
Year of completion: 2009
Host Organisation: The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)
Supervisor (Host Organisation): Ms Suruchi Bhadwal
Abstract: Clean air, safe water, adequate food and secure shelter are requisites for sustaining the population in a healthy state and since the climate system influences each of these, climate change emerges as an important risk factor impacting human health. Since seasonal patterns and climate sensitivities of many of the infectious diseases are well known, the question of concern relates to the extent to which changes in disease patterns will occur under the conditions of global climate change. Populations in coastal regions are all the more vulnerable to adverse health impacts due to a probable increase in events like cyclones, coastal flooding, salt water intrusion, ecosystem loss etc. It is therefore important to obtain the best possible assessment of the likely health impacts of climate change. The current study aims to review existing global literature on health impacts of climate change with focus on water-borne and vector-borne diseases and then explore the potential relationship between climatic factors and two selected health outcomes (all-cause diarrhoea and malaria), through time series regression analysis, for North 24 Parganas district of West Bengal, in order to estimate the likely impact of changes in climatic variables on disease incidence. The analysis revealed that mean minimum monthly temperature and total monthly rainfall had the major influence on the diseases assessed, with an approximate 50% and 45% increase, in monthly incidence of all-cause diarrhoea and malaria respectively, for a unit rise in the mean monthly minimum temperature. The study thus highlights the fact that local climatic conditions should be seriously considered by public health practitioners and policy makers to prevent or reduce future risks of these health outcome. An overall improvement in disease surveillance and development of comprehensive models in order to integrate influences of socio-economic and other non-climatic factors are essential for more accurate and effective predictions of likely health impacts of climate change at regional and global level.
Keywords: climate change, health, diarrhoea, malaria, time-series regression
